Insight · roadmap steps 7–13 · operating dashboard
Cordell Gear Works
Industrial gearboxes and speed reducers · $120M · 430 people
Your inputs are up 18%. The market you sell into is up 2%.
That is not our estimate — both are published producer price indexes and both are listed at the foot of this page with their identifiers. Everything the board below ranks is some consequence of that gap, and the only question worth asking this month is which consequence to spend Tuesday on.
Seven measures, ranked against each other rather than laid out in a grid. The worst thing is the biggest thing; anything that is fine collapses to a line at the bottom. Change the month and watch the order change.
- CRITICALSetup share on the constraint
38%
38% of gear grinding hours go to setup, not to cutting. Utilization 71%.
Keep going. Setup is coming down since the program started. Capacity you already own is far cheaper than the machine.
- WATCHForecast bias by channel
+2.1%
The total is +2.1% and looks fine. OEM is +14% and aftermarket -15% — they cancel.
Forecast the two channels separately. The total being nearly right is what hides this. One number cannot be managed when it is two problems in opposite directions.
Not a problem this month
- OKMargin against the price file0.0 pts
- OKCash tied up in the cycle108 days
- OKWin rate on quoted work35%
- OKInbound freight, unrecovered+0.0%
- OKRevenue from products under five years old12.7%
- CRITICALSetup share on the constraint
38%
38% of gear grinding hours go to setup, not to cutting. Utilization 70%.
Keep going. Setup is coming down since the program started. Capacity you already own is far cheaper than the machine.
- WATCHForecast bias by channel
+3.1%
The total is +3.1% and looks fine. OEM is +13% and aftermarket -11% — they cancel.
Forecast the two channels separately. The total being nearly right is what hides this. One number cannot be managed when it is two problems in opposite directions.
Not a problem this month
- OKMargin against the price file0.0 pts
- OKCash tied up in the cycle112 days
- OKWin rate on quoted work32%
- OKInbound freight, unrecovered+0.0%
- OKRevenue from products under five years old11.6%
- CRITICALForecast bias by channel
+5.3%
The total is +5.3% and looks fine. OEM is +18% and aftermarket -12% — they cancel.
Forecast the two channels separately. The total being nearly right is what hides this. One number cannot be managed when it is two problems in opposite directions.
- CRITICALSetup share on the constraint
38%
38% of gear grinding hours go to setup, not to cutting. Utilization 72%.
Keep going. Setup is coming down since the program started. Capacity you already own is far cheaper than the machine.
Not a problem this month
- OKMargin against the price file0.0 pts
- OKCash tied up in the cycle107 days
- OKWin rate on quoted work34%
- OKInbound freight, unrecovered+0.0%
- OKRevenue from products under five years old11.6%
- CRITICALSetup share on the constraint
37%
37% of gear grinding hours go to setup, not to cutting. Utilization 72%.
Keep going. Setup is coming down since the program started. Capacity you already own is far cheaper than the machine.
- WATCHForecast bias by channel
+2.2%
The total is +2.2% and looks fine. OEM is +14% and aftermarket -14% — they cancel.
Forecast the two channels separately. The total being nearly right is what hides this. One number cannot be managed when it is two problems in opposite directions.
- WATCHRevenue from products under five years old
11.0%
11.0% of revenue comes from products launched in the last five years.
Decide what replaces the current book. Falling vitality is slow and it is not urgent until the morning it is.
Not a problem this month
- OKMargin against the price file0.0 pts
- OKCash tied up in the cycle113 days
- OKWin rate on quoted work33%
- OKInbound freight, unrecovered-0.6%
- CRITICALForecast bias by channel
+5.1%
The total is +5.1% and looks fine. OEM is +16% and aftermarket -10% — they cancel.
Forecast the two channels separately. The total being nearly right is what hides this. One number cannot be managed when it is two problems in opposite directions.
- CRITICALSetup share on the constraint
38%
38% of gear grinding hours go to setup, not to cutting. Utilization 72%.
Keep going. Setup is coming down since the program started. Capacity you already own is far cheaper than the machine.
- WATCHWin rate on quoted work
31%
Down 4.2 points since last July, while quoted prices lagged the steel market.
Find out what you are losing on. Price and lead time are different problems with opposite fixes, and the quote log will say which.
Not a problem this month
- OKInbound freight, unrecovered+1.6%
- OKMargin against the price file0.0 pts
- OKCash tied up in the cycle111 days
- OKRevenue from products under five years old11.5%
- CRITICALForecast bias by channel
+4.3%
The total is +4.3% and looks fine. OEM is +17% and aftermarket -13% — they cancel.
Forecast the two channels separately. The total being nearly right is what hides this. One number cannot be managed when it is two problems in opposite directions.
- CRITICALSetup share on the constraint
39%
39% of gear grinding hours go to setup, not to cutting. Utilization 71%.
Keep going. Setup is coming down since the program started. Capacity you already own is far cheaper than the machine.
- WATCHWin rate on quoted work
32%
Down 2.8 points since last July, while quoted prices lagged the steel market.
Find out what you are losing on. Price and lead time are different problems with opposite fixes, and the quote log will say which.
- WATCHRevenue from products under five years old
10.3%
10.3% of revenue comes from products launched in the last five years.
Decide what replaces the current book. Falling vitality is slow and it is not urgent until the morning it is.
Not a problem this month
- OKMargin against the price file0.5 pts
- OKCash tied up in the cycle115 days
- OKInbound freight, unrecovered-2.7%
- CRITICALSetup share on the constraint
38%
38% of gear grinding hours go to setup, not to cutting. Utilization 70%.
Keep going. Setup is coming down since the program started. Capacity you already own is far cheaper than the machine.
- WATCHForecast bias by channel
+3.5%
The total is +3.5% and looks fine. OEM is +13% and aftermarket -9% — they cancel.
Forecast the two channels separately. The total being nearly right is what hides this. One number cannot be managed when it is two problems in opposite directions.
- WATCHWin rate on quoted work
31%
Down 3.5 points since last July, while quoted prices lagged the steel market.
Find out what you are losing on. Price and lead time are different problems with opposite fixes, and the quote log will say which.
Not a problem this month
- OKMargin against the price file0.7 pts
- OKCash tied up in the cycle115 days
- OKRevenue from products under five years old11.3%
- OKInbound freight, unrecovered-2.5%
- CRITICALForecast bias by channel
+5.6%
The total is +5.6% and looks fine. OEM is +16% and aftermarket -9% — they cancel.
Forecast the two channels separately. The total being nearly right is what hides this. One number cannot be managed when it is two problems in opposite directions.
- CRITICALSetup share on the constraint
36%
36% of gear grinding hours go to setup, not to cutting. Utilization 72%.
Keep going. Setup is coming down since the program started. Capacity you already own is far cheaper than the machine.
- WATCHMargin against the price file
1.1 pts
$119,000 a month
Quoting still assumes 31%. Steel is +19% since the September 2025 price file, which is +6.3% on cost once weighted.
Rebuild the price file by category. Not a blanket increase — the categories moved by different amounts, and a flat rise overcharges half the book and undercharges the rest.
- WATCHCash tied up in the cycle
123 days
109 days of inventory plus 54 collecting, less 40 paying. Up 15 days on last July — about $5,156,372 of cash.
Attack inventory days first. Inventory is the largest of the three and the one you control. It is building against a forecast that is wrong by channel.
- WATCHWin rate on quoted work
31%
Down 4.0 points since last July, while quoted prices lagged the steel market.
Find out what you are losing on. Price and lead time are different problems with opposite fixes, and the quote log will say which.
- WATCHRevenue from products under five years old
11.0%
11.0% of revenue comes from products launched in the last five years.
Decide what replaces the current book. Falling vitality is slow and it is not urgent until the morning it is.
Not a problem this month
- OKInbound freight, unrecovered-1.5%
- CRITICALForecast bias by channel
+4.1%
The total is +4.1% and looks fine. OEM is +18% and aftermarket -15% — they cancel.
Forecast the two channels separately. The total being nearly right is what hides this. One number cannot be managed when it is two problems in opposite directions.
- WATCHMargin against the price file
1.4 pts
$142,000 a month
Quoting still assumes 31%. Steel is +19% since the September 2025 price file, which is +6.3% on cost once weighted.
Rebuild the price file by category. Not a blanket increase — the categories moved by different amounts, and a flat rise overcharges half the book and undercharges the rest.
- WATCHCash tied up in the cycle
119 days
111 days of inventory plus 50 collecting, less 42 paying. Up 11 days on last July — about $3,860,117 of cash.
Attack inventory days first. Inventory is the largest of the three and the one you control. It is building against a forecast that is wrong by channel.
- WATCHWin rate on quoted work
31%
Down 4.3 points since last July, while quoted prices lagged the steel market.
Find out what you are losing on. Price and lead time are different problems with opposite fixes, and the quote log will say which.
- WATCHSetup share on the constraint
34%
34% of gear grinding hours go to setup, not to cutting. Utilization 74%.
Keep going. Setup is coming down since the program started. Capacity you already own is far cheaper than the machine.
- WATCHRevenue from products under five years old
9.9%
9.9% of revenue comes from products launched in the last five years.
Decide what replaces the current book. Falling vitality is slow and it is not urgent until the morning it is.
Not a problem this month
- OKInbound freight, unrecovered+2.8%
- CRITICALForecast bias by channel
+5.2%
The total is +5.2% and looks fine. OEM is +16% and aftermarket -9% — they cancel.
Forecast the two channels separately. The total being nearly right is what hides this. One number cannot be managed when it is two problems in opposite directions.
- WATCHMargin against the price file
1.7 pts
$165,000 a month
Quoting still assumes 31%. Steel is +19% since the September 2025 price file, which is +6.3% on cost once weighted.
Rebuild the price file by category. Not a blanket increase — the categories moved by different amounts, and a flat rise overcharges half the book and undercharges the rest.
- WATCHInbound freight, unrecovered
+8.0%
$27,000 a month
Inbound freight is +8% since the price file and is not in it at all. Nobody quotes freight.
Put freight on the quote. It is a line item everywhere else in this trade and it is absorbed here.
- WATCHCash tied up in the cycle
126 days
111 days of inventory plus 54 collecting, less 39 paying. Up 18 days on last July — about $5,698,726 of cash.
Attack inventory days first. Inventory is the largest of the three and the one you control. It is building against a forecast that is wrong by channel.
- WATCHWin rate on quoted work
29%
Down 5.7 points since last July, while quoted prices lagged the steel market.
Find out what you are losing on. Price and lead time are different problems with opposite fixes, and the quote log will say which.
- WATCHSetup share on the constraint
33%
33% of gear grinding hours go to setup, not to cutting. Utilization 75%.
Keep going. Setup is coming down since the program started. Capacity you already own is far cheaper than the machine.
- WATCHRevenue from products under five years old
10.2%
10.2% of revenue comes from products launched in the last five years.
Decide what replaces the current book. Falling vitality is slow and it is not urgent until the morning it is.
- WATCHMargin against the price file
1.9 pts
$189,000 a month
Quoting still assumes 31%. Steel is +19% since the September 2025 price file, which is +6.3% on cost once weighted.
Rebuild the price file by category. Not a blanket increase — the categories moved by different amounts, and a flat rise overcharges half the book and undercharges the rest.
- WATCHInbound freight, unrecovered
+9.6%
$34,000 a month
Inbound freight is +10% since the price file and is not in it at all. Nobody quotes freight.
Put freight on the quote. It is a line item everywhere else in this trade and it is absorbed here.
- WATCHForecast bias by channel
+2.8%
The total is +2.8% and looks fine. OEM is +12% and aftermarket -10% — they cancel.
Forecast the two channels separately. The total being nearly right is what hides this. One number cannot be managed when it is two problems in opposite directions.
- WATCHCash tied up in the cycle
123 days
112 days of inventory plus 52 collecting, less 42 paying. Up 15 days on last July — about $5,023,104 of cash.
Attack inventory days first. Inventory is the largest of the three and the one you control. It is building against a forecast that is wrong by channel.
- WATCHWin rate on quoted work
28%
Down 6.3 points since last July, while quoted prices lagged the steel market.
Find out what you are losing on. Price and lead time are different problems with opposite fixes, and the quote log will say which.
- WATCHSetup share on the constraint
34%
34% of gear grinding hours go to setup, not to cutting. Utilization 75%.
Keep going. Setup is coming down since the program started. Capacity you already own is far cheaper than the machine.
- WATCHRevenue from products under five years old
9.7%
9.7% of revenue comes from products launched in the last five years.
Decide what replaces the current book. Falling vitality is slow and it is not urgent until the morning it is.
- CRITICALMargin against the price file
2.2 pts
$228,000 a month
Quoting still assumes 31%. Steel is +19% since the September 2025 price file, which is +6.3% on cost once weighted.
Rebuild the price file by category. Not a blanket increase — the categories moved by different amounts, and a flat rise overcharges half the book and undercharges the rest.
- WATCHInbound freight, unrecovered
+10.0%
$37,000 a month
Inbound freight is +10% since the price file and is not in it at all. Nobody quotes freight.
Put freight on the quote. It is a line item everywhere else in this trade and it is absorbed here.
- WATCHForecast bias by channel
+4.1%
The total is +4.1% and looks fine. OEM is +14% and aftermarket -10% — they cancel.
Forecast the two channels separately. The total being nearly right is what hides this. One number cannot be managed when it is two problems in opposite directions.
- WATCHCash tied up in the cycle
125 days
115 days of inventory plus 52 collecting, less 41 paying. Up 18 days on last July — about $6,186,680 of cash.
Attack inventory days first. Inventory is the largest of the three and the one you control. It is building against a forecast that is wrong by channel.
- WATCHWin rate on quoted work
29%
Down 5.7 points since last July, while quoted prices lagged the steel market.
Find out what you are losing on. Price and lead time are different problems with opposite fixes, and the quote log will say which.
- WATCHRevenue from products under five years old
9.8%
9.8% of revenue comes from products launched in the last five years.
Decide what replaces the current book. Falling vitality is slow and it is not urgent until the morning it is.
Not a problem this month
- OKSetup share on the constraint31%
How this is ranked, and what it will not tell you
Severity first, then money. Sorting on color alone would put a $2,000 problem above a $200,000 one; sorting on money alone would bury a real failure under a large healthy number.
Only two of the seven can be costed honestly — the margin gap and the freight, because both are a percentage applied to a figure the company already knows. The other five rank on how bad they are and on a stated weight. We could have attached a dollar figure to each to make the ordering look more rigorous, and every one of them would have been made up.
Every band is written in words as well as colored. Roughly one man in twelve cannot reliably separate the red from the green, and this is a dashboard for a plant.
Where the input figures come from
Company figures are invented. These are not, and they are the ones carrying the headline. Every series is public and re-pullable at the identifier given.
| Series | Title | Jun 2026 | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| WPU1017 | PPI Commodity: Steel mill products | 361.4 | +18.3% |
| WPU101 | PPI Commodity: Iron and steel | 366.3 | +15.2% |
| PCU484121484121 | PPI Industry: Long-distance general freight trucking, truckload | 204.6 | +13.1% |
| PCU332811332811 | PPI Industry: Metal heat treating | 321.5 | +3.5% |
| PCU332710332710 | PPI Industry: Machine shops | 212.6 | +1.7% |
| PCU333120333120 | PPI Industry: Construction machinery manufacturing | 366.8 | +2.0% |
Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, pulled August 2026, comparing June 2026 against July 2025. Public data ages — re-pull before relying on any of it.