The Sales Pipeline Truth: Weighted Forecast & Coverage

The sample's ten deals are $187,000 on paper. Weighted by the probabilities reps like, they're $109,075. Weighted by what those stages have actually converted, they're $71,925 — thirty-eight percent of the paper number. Quarters die in the gap between the second number and the third. This workbook runs both columns side by side, so the argument happens in week 2, when it can still be fixed.

How it works

• The Pipeline Ledger — your stage table (history %, hope %, shelf life) drives both weighted columns, and deals that outstay their stage get flagged: stale at shelf life, DEAD at double it (close it lost — resurrection is free)
• Coverage & The Call — weighted coverage of the remaining gap, raw coverage against the 3× rule, exactly how much new pipeline to source, and a COMMIT you can defend plus a BEST CASE you chase but don't promise
• Pipeline Hygiene — derive probabilities from your last 50 closed deals (the recipe's included), the Friday 15-minute scrub, next-step-or-it's-not-a-deal, and why close dates slip in threes

Built for

Whoever owns the number: sales managers · owner-sellers · agencies and SaaS · rep teams and their fractional leaders.

What you get

One .xlsx file, four tabs, instant download. Excel, Google Sheets, Apple Numbers, LibreOffice. No macros, no subscription. Stages, probabilities and shelf lives all yours to edit — and re-derive quarterly.