The Membership Math: Churn, the Ceiling & the Levers

The sample gym signs 12 a month and loses 6%. Its ceiling is 200 members — forever, whatever it spends on ads. It has 210 and is quietly shrinking toward the ceiling it can't see, while $19,500 of future revenue leaks out the bottom of the bucket every month.

How it works

• The Leaky Bucket — five inputs → your ceiling, which way you're headed, member lifetime, lifetime value, and the leak priced per month
• The Churn Levers — the four fixes that actually move the rate, each with an honest effect you set: first-30-days onboarding, failed-payment recovery (a third of "cancels" are expired cards nobody chased), 90-day check-ins at the attendance dip, and freeze-instead-of-cancel. Sample: 6% → 3.5%, ceiling 200 → 343, +$12,700 a month at the same marketing spend
• Raise & Retain — the dues raise priced before the email goes out (+$880/mo in the sample, erased only if 13 members quit over six dollars), the four-rung save ladder for every cancel conversation, and the exit question that picks next quarter's lever

Built for

Gyms and boxes · yoga, pilates and barre · martial arts and dance · pools, clubs and every business that bills monthly and watches the count stall.

What you get

One .xlsx file, four tabs, instant download. Excel, Google Sheets, Apple Numbers, LibreOffice. No macros, no subscription. Every rate and lever editable.